Nuclear Challenges

People gather around a large inflatable structure in Times Square, displaying

Artist Pedro Reyes’s inflatable sculpture, ZERO NUKES, was the center of Amnesia Atómica, a public commission in May 2022 in New York City’s Times Square. Credit: Chris Colletta

286

Grants

$130.5M

Invested

94

Organizations from 2014 to 2023

Nuclear Challenges Big Bet: $100 Million 2015 - 2020

Nuclear Challenges sought to reduce the danger posed by nuclear weapons as a Big Bet, which are time-limited grantmaking programs aimed at achieving transformative change in an area of critical importance. The Nuclear Challenges Big Bet focused on ending the production of weapons-useable material, and strengthening and protecting the institutions, organizations, and agreements that comprise the nuclear regime.

There were nearly 16,000 nuclear weapons worldwide in 2015, down significantly from 70,000 at the height of the Cold War. Unfortunately, despite this dramatic reduction in nuclear weapons stockpiles, countries did not similarly reduce weapons-useable material, which could fuel tens of thousands of additional weapons.

In the 2010s, rising geopolitical tensions and the threat of non-state actors increased the risk of accidental or intentional use. Just one detonation of a nuclear weapon could change the contours of society. Multiple detonations could kill millions, devastate the environment, disrupt financial systems, and cause widespread chaos, presenting an existential threat.

Overhead view of a missile in a missile silo, with surrounding structural and mechanical components.

Command and Control (2016), a MacArthur-supported documentary, explores the long-hidden accidents, near misses, and technological breakthroughs connected to America’s nuclear weapons program. Credit: PBS American Experience

The Nuclear Challenges’ goal was to eliminate stockpiles of weapons-useable material. With this goal in mind, the program focused grantmaking on protecting the nuclear regime, which consists of three principles: nonproliferation, disarmament, and the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Our strategy included grants related to U.S.-Russia relations, the capacity of the U.S. Congress to address issues related to nuclear weapons, U.S. weapons policy, the global fuel cycle, and tensions between countries that have nuclear weapons and those that do not.

Civil society has played a crucial role in identifying and mitigating the risks posed by nuclear weapons through policy research, analysis, and engagement. To support this, we invested $100 million in civil society between 2015 and 2020 as part of our Nuclear Challenges Big Bet. This program built on the $460 million MacArthur provided over three decades to strengthen nuclear security more broadly.

Nuclear Challenges Capstone: $30 Million 2021 - 2023

With the end of our time-limited Nuclear Challenges Big Bet strategy, our focus shifted to implementing a three-year, $30 million capstone investment to support the nuclear field during our final years of grantmaking.

The capstone investment centered on four areas of work that collectively aimed to strengthen and diversify the nuclear field. Our capstone helped:

Cultivate diversity and empower new voices and underrepresented communities in the talent pipeline;
Innovate by supporting a research network to challenge deterrence theory;
Lead at the nexus of nuclear and climate risks, with a focus on mitigating the security implications of nuclear power’s expansion as a climate solution; and
Preserve support for a limited number of key organizations in the field to sustain critical dialogues related to nuclear weapons.

These areas of grantmaking emerged from a multi-year evaluation and learning process in partnership with our Office of Evaluation and Learning and our evaluation and learning partner, ORS Impact. The capstone was designed to blend sustained support for core organizations and diplomatic efforts with more experimental work to support the field’s evolution and growth. Our theory was that investing in a more diverse and inclusive nuclear field—demographically and intellectually—would help it succeed in future policy debates and fundraising efforts, with the ultimate goal of reducing the threat posed by nuclear weapons.

John Palfrey and Erika Gregory, Managing Director of N Square, discuss her work to disrupt the nuclear field and create innovative, multi-disciplinary partnerships through network building and where the field is headed.

Measurement and Evaluation for Learning

Evaluation of our work is an important tool for informing our decision-making, leading to better results and more effective stewardship of resources. We develop customized evaluation designs for each of our Big Bet strategies based on the context, problem, opportunities, and approach to the work. Evaluation is not a one-time event; it is an ongoing process of collecting feedback and using that information to support our grantees and adjust our strategy.

We engaged in a rigorous, iterative, and collaborative process to evaluate the Nuclear Challenges strategy with our external learning and evaluation partner, ORS Impact. This process included the development of an evaluation design that was focused on measuring and evaluating the progress of strategy, testing our assumptions, and enhancing our understanding of the context in which our strategy operated.

ORS’s 2020 evaluation found that our grantees had a significant impact towards reducing the risk posed by nuclear weapons. Grantees contributed to a reservoir of credible policy solutions, as well as incremental decreases in the production and storage of nuclear material around the world. Additionally, grantees’ work helped keep critical bilateral and multilateral communications and dialogue channels open. However, the findings also indicated that the Foundation’s investments and the opportunities afforded by the external landscape did not offer a line-of-sight to the Big Bet goal of a strengthened and stabilized nuclear regime by 2025 or a negotiated weapons-useable material agreement by 2030.

ORS undertook a final evaluation of the Nuclear Challenges Big Bet and its $30 million capstone, and we will share the report in 2025.